Global warming how much

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Email address Sign up. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing. Global warming has already resulted in significant alterations to human and natural systems; by limiting temperature increase to 1. Experts suggest that the 1. By moving along a sliding scale, those using the app can explore temperature change compared to the pre-industrial period for any point between the year and the present day.

A red line showing the average warming rate over the last 30 years continues into the future until it reaches the 1. Like an artist draws a rough sketch before filling in the details, the app uses a very simple linear model to illustrate how temperatures are likely to change in the future if global warming continues at its current rate.

The period of was chosen largely because the U. The GISS temperature analysis effort began around , so the most recent 30 years was Though there are minor variations from year to year, all five records show peaks and valleys in sync with each other.

All show rapid warming in the past few decades, and all show the last decade as the warmest. These in situ measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heat island effects that could skew the conclusions.

These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of to The objective, according to GISS scientists, is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity.

Temperatures in a given year or decade might rise 5 degrees in one region and drop 2 degrees in another. Exceptionally cold winters in one region might be followed by exceptionally warm summers. Or a cold winter in one area might be balanced by an extremely warm winter in another part of the globe. The clearest evidence for surface warming comes from widespread thermometer records that, in some places, extend back to the late 19th century. Today, temperatures are monitored at many thousands of locations, over both the land and ocean surface.

Indirect estimates of temperature change from such sources as tree rings and ice cores help to place recent temperature changes in the context of the past.

In terms of the average surface temperature of Earth, these indirect estimates show that to was very likely the warmest year period in more than years; the most recent decade, , is the warmest decade in the instrumental record so far since Figure 1b.